In the morning on August 31, a Twitter account reportedly belonging to the son of drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán posted a photo that appeared to show the two of them together in Costa Rica.
The photo came less than two months after Guzmán broke out of a high-security prison in central Mexico.Almost immediately, observers in Mexico doubted that one of the world's most wanted men would be able to head south and enjoy some quality time with his son.
The story of the photo and Guzmán's whereabouts grew more complicated two days later, when reports emerged from the southern Mexican state of Tabasco that a man who looked similar to Guzmán had been injured in a car accident and taken to a hospital but had fled before police could arrive.
(Business Insider/Google Maps) Mexico's Tabasco state borders Central America's Northern Triangle, a hotbed for drug trafficking and gang activity.
“An accident caused on the 50 kilometer mark of the Macuspana-Villahermosa federal highway … left one injured person, allegedly with the characteristics of Archivaldo Guzmán Loera,” according to local newspaper Tabasco Hoy, likely referring to Guzmán’s full name, Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera.
(He also has a son named Iván Archivaldo.)
(Reuters) Joaquin Guzman, left, the leader of Mexico's Sinaloa drug cartel, with an unidentified man in this undated handout photo found after a raid on a ranch, released to Reuters on January 18, 2011.
“… A detachment of military personnel in Ciudad Pemex mobilized immediately and arrived at the regional hospital where the injured person supposedly was,” the daily continued.
“However, minutes before the troops arrived, the subject asked to be discharged and left the site.”
It’s certainly possible that Guzmán could’ve traveled from Costa Rica to the southern state of Tabasco in the intervening two days.
But questions remain as to why the fugitive drug lord and boss of the Sinaloa cartel would risk venturing outside of his group's territory.
(Stratfor) The Sinaloa cartel's areas of influence, shown in light orange, with those of the Tamaulipas organized-crime group, shown in light green.
What's more, traveling, especially internationally, is likely still dangerous for the kingpin, who, since his escape, has become one of the most wanted men in the world, with a multimillion-dollar bounty on his head.
However, if Guzmán were moving throughout the region, it may have something to do with his cartel's operations — as it would not be his first foray into Central America.
The Northern Triangle
In recent years, the region, specifically the Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, has become a locus for drug trafficking, particularly for cocaine from Colombia, where Guzmán’s Sinaloa cartel controls more than one-third of production.The drug lord has also reportedly moved in and out of Honduras, allegedly conducting trafficking operations from the country several years ago.
"Guatemala borders Honduras … the borders are unprotected; the legal system is weak, and criminal networks control both territories,” Eric Olson, an expert on Mexican cartels, told Forbes in 2013.
(REUTERS/Jorge Dan Lopez) Guatemala's former president, Otto Perez Molina, being escorted by police officers after a hearing at the Supreme Court of Justice in Guatemala City, September 3, 2015. Perez resigned his presidency and turned himself in to a court on Thursday to face charges in a corruption scandal.
Moreover, the recently jailed ex-president of Guatemala, Otto Pérez Molina, has said Guzmán offered him a substantial bribe when the drug lord was arrested in 1993, according to Vice News.
Pérez Molina, a retired army general, said he led the operation that captured Guzmán.
“The first thing [Guzmán] did was try and negotiate,” Pérez Molina, who is accused of stealing $3.7 million while he was in office, said during a recent court appearance.
"The [bribe] offer we got after his capture is perhaps 10 or 15 times the amount that you're accusing me of here, and I didn't do it because it went against my principles."
Guzmán spent eight years in jail after his first arrest, before bribing his way out in 2001. He avoided arrest for 13 years before being apprehended again in 2014.
Despite his undoubtedly immense resources — a reported movements — some observers and a top DEA official think it’s likely Guzmán is still at home in Sinaloa.
“It’s where he would feel the safest,” said Chuck Rosenberg, the DEA's acting administrator.
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